MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-13T00:18:14
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently Normal Background to Moderate, with peak values gradually declining since the recent enhancements but still with a chance of briefly reaching high (greater than 1000 pfu). No notable sources of further enhancement are anticipated through the period, with a chance of some drop out in values from the arrival of a weak coronal hole-sourced fast wind.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with a gradual declining trend. REFM is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-11-13T00:18:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |