Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-12T00:18:22

The high energy (greater than 10 MeV) proton flux is expected to be at or near background levels. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to be mainly at moderate to background levels, but with a chance of temporarily breaching the High threshold of 1000 pfu during the peak of the diurnal cycle today.

The corresponding 24-hour electron fluence is expected to continue on a steady or slightly upward trend, before declining towards the end of the period, whilst remaining below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout. The overall trend pattern of the REFM forecast data seems reasonable at present, with observations close to model expectations.