MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-11T00:16:24
High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO is at moderate to background levels, and is likely to remain so in the coming days, with a diminishing chance of reaching high levels during the diurnal peak. Any possible weak coronal hole or CME effects are not expected to have a significant impact.
The associated 24-hour electron fluence is currently below the Active threshold, and is likely to see a continuing slow downward trend. The overall trend pattern of the REFM forecast data seems reasonable at present, with observations now close to model expectations.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-11-11T00:16:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |