Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-10T00:15:35

High energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux at GEO is likely to start at moderate to high levels, but a slow downward trend is likely though the forecast period. However, the rate of decline is low confidence, with further slight enhancements to solar wind speeds possible due to weak coronal hoe influences, and perhaps weak CME effects on day 2 (11th).

The associated 24-hour electron fluence is currently just below the Active threshold, and is likely to see a continuing slow downward trend. However, the rate of decline is low confidence, as electron counts may still be elevated at times due to the possible above mentioned solar wind enhancements. Hence the downward trend signalled in latest REFM data may be a little fast