Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-16T12:29:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as measured by GOES-16 are currently at background levels, likely due to a mixture of radiation belt distortion due to the strong high speed stream, and a redistribution of electrons in the belts due to the recent geomagnetic enhancements. As a result, background levels are expected to continue through day 1 and much of day 2 (16 and 17 November), with an increase in flux coinciding with the decrease in solar wind speeds and geomagnetic activity, leading to a sustained period of high electron flux values.

Electron fluence is following a steady trend, but is then forecast to increase rapidly in line with the forecast increase in the electron flux. REFM forecasts that fluence will reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) on day 2, with this trend broadly accepted.