Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-05T00:14:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) will start at moderate levels. However, as a result of the recent strong solar wind speeds, and current elevated wind speeds, the flux is likely to reach high levels at times today (5th) and then predominantly high levels from tomorrow (6th) onwards. Corresponding 24 hour electron fluence values are expected to start below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level, but with an increasing trend, with the Active threshold expected to be breached late today, and thereafter remaining above the threshold.

Therefore the Met Office REFM model is considering to giving good guidance.