Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-13T00:12:28

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background levels.

The current Sun did not produce a persistent feature capable of generating Active electron fluence on previous rotation (16 Sept). However, on this rotation, there appears to be more numerous and mostly minor coronal holes on the current visible disc, which means persistence forecasting will provide lower confidence than usual.  REFM's recent upward trend is a hint and can be expected to be exaggerated in reality, i.e. levels will perhaps be higher than suggested. This is especially true as REFM has no  mechanism to promulgate the 09 October CME's arrival, and chances of surpassing Active fluence are further increased relative to modelling. A sharp rebound in flux seen at GEO is expected in the next 24 hours as a result, although the degree to which this manifests is uncertain.

All considered, there is a Chance of Active fluence from later on day 1 (13 Oct), peaking shortly thereafter before coronal holes become the dominant consideration to end the working week, with fluence probably slightly down on peak. The possible arrival of geomagnetic activity from CH12/+ and a possible glancing CME late in the forecast period may (appear to) initially dent the chances of fluence being sustained into the weekend, with any subsequent recovery of fluence then equally uncertain.