Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-21T00:37:33

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at mainly Moderate levels, but may rise once the (apparent) brake of geomagnetic activity from current CH20/- is released. There is a Chance of 24-hour electron fluence exceeding Active in the period, although confidence in this aspect is relatively low for the lack of a relevant analogue on last rotation.

MOSWOC REFM suggests an increasing risk of breaching Active in the next 72 hours, a proposal that is tentatively accepted, although the chances of this occurring are now felt to be lower than 24 hours ago, now the more muted character of CH20/- is becoming clear. Whatever the attained peak, the risk of further increases in fluence should have passed by day three, Tuesday 23 November.