MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-22T00:04:06
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels. The influence of the current high speed stream, from CH13/-, may drive an increase in flux levels, which may then give a flux increase at GEO later in the period. Flux levels rose on the previous rotation, but not above the High (1000 pfu) level.
The electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on a steady trend. However as flux levels are likely to rise through the period so will the corresponding fluence levels. There is a chance of seeing fluence close to Active threshold by the end of Day 4 (25 Oct), with the REFM model currently indicating a rising trend, the model is considered to be good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-22T00:04:06 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |