MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-18T00:25:14
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to fluctuate daily between Background and Moderate levels through this period.
On the previous rotation, electron fluence reached Active levels (above 1e8 integrated pfu) as electron counts increased significantly under the influence of CH76's high speed stream. However, despite the current increasing trend of the fluence, it is currently expected to remain well below the Active threshold. This is confirmed by the latest REFM output and the recurrent-Persistence Electron Forecast Model.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-18T00:25:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |