MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-10-24T00:15:14
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at Normal Background levels, having failed to respond to the recent exit from coronal hole 13's high speed stream. With no further enhancements expected in the four-day forecast period, should it not experience an uncharacteristically exaggerated reaction to the recent fast wind, it is unlikely to react for the remainder of the period, and Normal Background flux and sub-Active fluence should persist throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-10-24T00:15:14 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |