Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-23T00:13:28

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has been diurnally fluctuating between background and moderate levels but with peak levels gradaully rising each day. This pattern is likely to continue over the coming days but with an increased chance of High levels (> 1000 pfu) being reached as any compression of the Van Allen belts from the current fast wind of CH20/- continues to subside. Any elevated flux has the potential to drop out again later in the period with any further fast wind arrival from CH21, however this is very low confidence.

Corresponding electron fluence is expected to continue to see an increasing trend, likely staying below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence) levels, but with a slight chance of rising above, mainly day 2. This risk subsides by the end of the period. MOSWOC REFM indicates is giving a good indication of expected values up to T+24, but should be disregarded beyond this point, with the magnitude of the increase shown not expected.