Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-26T00:14:15

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background to moderate levels, having dropped out due to the arrival of a glancing CME on the 24th, followed by a CIR ahead of the high speed stream from CH46. The potential for a further glancing CME arrival early on Day 1 (26th) will also prolong the dropout of values at GEO, should this occur. Whilst electron flux levels are expected to recover a little as any initial geomagnetic enhancement subsides, this is most likely to reach moderate levels, perhaps with peak High flux, with only a chance of returning to more persistent High levels. Flux levels are likely to drop again on Day 3 (28th) due to the arrival of another fast wind from CH47, and the slight chance for another CME glance.

The associated 24 hour fluence has fallen very sharply below the Active level in the last 12 hours. A chance of further Active fluence then becomes possible through the period, either from a further gradual build of levels as the forthcoming fast wind enhancement to the solar wind eases, or from the low chance of high flux levels being maintained and seen at GEO as the radiation belts de-compress. REFM is currently giving poor guidance, as this is not taking account of the current fast wind enhancement that is occurring, or any subsequent CME arrivals.