Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-02T00:24:46

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to initially continue at high levels, with a steady decline in the diurnal peak through the next four days. The diurnal peaks however are still likely to exceed the high (1e3pfu) threshold by the end of the period. The rate of decline is expected to be slow, with no high speed streams or strong CMEs expected and thus no significant geomagnetic activity. Any decline however is subject to the potential arrival of two forecast weak CMEs, one feature already potentially affecting the near-Earth environment and one forecast to arrive late on 04 July.

Electron fluence values are forecast to exhibit a declining trend through the next four days, as the electron flux values slowly decrease. In the absence of notable mechanisms for distortion or redistribution within the belts, the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is expected to be exceeded on 02 July, with a likelihood of this continuing through 03 and 04 July, before reducing by 05 July, with the potential arrival of a high speed stream from CH97.