MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-22T12:06:55
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to gradually decline to Background to Moderate levels through the period, though days 1 and 2 may see the diurnal peak briefly breach the High threshold. By Day 3 (24th), with the onset of CH93, electrons are expected to become suppressed with the risk of reaching the High threshold falling considerably. The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to continue on a steady or downward trend below the 1e8 Active threshold throughout.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-06-22T12:06:55 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 30% | 2% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |