Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-13T00:16:57

Confidence in the electron forecast is now rising, with the current coronal hole fast wind so far proving similar on this pass to last rotation, now assumed to be CH53. This feature's predecessor saw eventual marginal exceedence of the Active 24-hour integrated fluence threshold. This gives a rising probability of exceedence of Active from current levels in the four-day period, with the caveat of minor transient activity perhaps polluting the forecast later in the four days.