MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-25T00:17:29
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO reached high levels through the diurnal cycle on 24 Nov. A repeat of this pattern is likely for the next two or three days but confidence is rather low. By day 4 (28 Nov) the anticipated arrival of the CME is likely to reduce electron counts.
Corresponding electron fluence will probably remain below the active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu). MOSWOC REFM output is giving reasonable guidance to start the period, but the current reset to higher values on 25 Nov is considered unrealistic.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-11-25T00:17:29 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |