MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-11-26T00:13:36
Now that Earth has exited the HSS from CH20 the high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to decrease to Low to Moderate levels by late tomorrow (27th), before the potential CME arrives. Thereafter generally Moderate levels are expected, but with a chance of exceeding High levels temporarily at the peak of the diurnal cycles during Days 3 and 4. The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold.
Current MOSWOC REFM output maintains the fluence below the Active threshold, and this is accepted.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-11-26T00:13:36 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |