Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-30T00:15:21

Electron counts have become elevated since geomagnetic activity subsided on 28th. The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to persist at moderate to high levels on most days, due to the ongoing geomagnetic activity. However, some temporary redistributions to background levels are likely at times, in association with any enhancements to the geomagnetic activity. The corresponding fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), although confidence is low with regards to the timing and intensity of the expected CMEs. The latest REFM output is not considered to provide good guidance, relying essentially on persistence.