Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-31T00:12:46

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has recently shown an upward trend in reaction to the high speed stream from coronal hole 78/79/+. While this response may not yet have stabilised, in all likelihood further increases should be limited, with diurnal peaks into the Moderate flux range (100-1000pfu) most likely. Resultant 24-hour integrated fluence showing an upward trend will probably plateau over the next 12 to 24 hours and are comfortably anticipated to remain below the Active threshold.

A similar magnitude reaction is possible towards the end of the forecast period in response to any high speed stream or marginal CME influence from CH80/- and the 28 July CME. The presence of two transients in the forecast limits the usefulness of REFM in the period, however its suggestion of sub-Active fluence is felt to be accurate should the ambient or coronal hole-driven wind continue throughout.