Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-01T00:29:27

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been at mainly background levels, but is likely to rise to Moderate through day 1 (1st) and day 2 (2nd) due to the recent connection to the fast wind of CH72. There is a chance of reaching high levels at diurnal peak, however this is low confidence due to the limited geomagnetic response, and also the source coronal hole no longer being visible. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to be below the Active threshold, but rising in response to any increase in electrons through days 1 (1st) and 2 (2nd). There is a slight chance of rising above the Active threshold, mainly day 2 onward. REFM is currently showing expected fluence in the absence of any connection to CH72, and is currently low confidence due to this.