Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-02T00:29:44

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to increase from mainly background to mainly moderate levels through days 1 and 2 (2nd and 3rd July) in response to the current high speed stream and possible CME arrival. Both these factors may lead to an increase in electrons into the radiation belts, with the high (1e3pfu) threshold being reached on diurnal peaks, but any increase could be affected by periods of enhanced geomagnetic activity. 

Electron fluence is expected to follow an increasing trend due to the increase in electron flux values, but it is unlikely that the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold will be exceeded, as represented by REFM, which is thought to be offering good guidance. .