MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-07T12:24:19
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is expected to persist at predominately background levels, and only briefly rising to moderate with the diurnal cycle. The arrival of the fast wind of the northern extension of the southern crown coronal hole on day 3 or 4 is currently anticipated to have only a limited enhancement to solar winds in the near-Earth environment, with no significant increases in electron populations currently expected.
The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, with REFM providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-07T12:24:19 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |