Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-08T00:16:17

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is at background levels, but could potentially rise through day 1 (8th) due to the recent arrival of the fast wind from CH40. This was a fairly weak connection however, with solar winds only briefly reaching slightly elevated levels. Background to Moderate flux is therefore expected, with only a slight chance of reaching High at diurnal peak. 

The associated 24 hour fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, and expected to remain at this level, although likely increasing through day 1 and into day 2 (8th and 9th). This is supported by REFM, although fluence is likely to rise above REFM expected values by day 2 and 3 (9th and 10th).