Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-06T12:17:58

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 is expected to be at background at first, but likely increasing to Moderate later day 1 (6th) and 2 (7th) due to the arrival of the fast wind of coronal hole 40. Brief periods of High flux are possible, although currently not expected, due to the connection to the fast wind likely remaining brief and fairly limited in strength. Any elevated flux levels are then expected to ease to background day 3 and day 4 (7th and 8th).

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active threshold, but with an increasing trend developing though days 1 and 2. REFM is currently supporting a below Active forecast, but due to CH40 being new on this rotation and the reliance of persistence at T+24, does not exhibit the anticipated rise.