Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-03-31T00:04:15

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain at predominantly moderate levels, but with an increasing chance of the High threshold (1000 pfu) being breached at the peaks of the diurnal cycles, especially from day 2 (1st Apr). This is due to the occasional slight influences of weak coronal hole high speed stream. The corresponding fluence is therefore expected to continue to gradually increase, whilst most likely remaining below the Active threshold.

Latest REFM data is considered to be offering reasonable guidance, with a general upward trend initially, and forecasting fluence levels to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) over the next 3 days.