Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-09T00:19:13

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to remain below the Alert level (greater than 1000 pfu), as is the associated 24-hour fluence, which likely to remain below Active threshold (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) during the forecast period. However, a modest increase from low levels is expected on Day 1 and 2 (9th and 10th), then again on Day 4 (12th). 

This is broadly supported by 3-day REFM forecast, which shows small rises, but so far below the Active threshold. It is likely to remain below the threshold through the forecast period. The 27-day recurrence is not very useful due to the completely different coronal hole configuration on this rotation. The recurrence-persistence model has an increase to 28 percent and 33 percent by Day 3 and 4 respectively (11th and 12th), which is probably overdone on this occasion.