MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-09T00:25:32
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is expected to persist at predominately background levels. Any enhancement to the near-Earth solar wind from the arrival of coronal hole sourced fast wind through days 1 and 2 (9th and 10th), is currently anticipated to have only a limited influence on the observed electron flux. This potentially rising to moderate levels at times, but with only a small chance of reaching High (above 1000 pfu) during diurnal maximum.
The associated electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, with REFM providing good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-09T00:25:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |