MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-02T00:21:46
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 is currently varying diurnally between background and moderate levels. Any solar wind enhancements from CH52 on day 1 (2nd) and CH51 on day 3 (4th), have the potential to enhance flux slightly, perhaps briefly reaching high at diurnal maximum, with the greatest risk day 4 (5th). Otherwise flux is expected to continue diurnally varying from normal background to moderate.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level throughout, although a rising trend is possible by the end of the period. This is supported by REFM, which is currently giving good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-02T00:21:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |