Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-30T12:01:31

Electron flux levels observed at GOES 16 took on a new lower magnitude diurnal oscillation over the past 24 hours, perhaps reacting to slightly increased geomagnetic activity from a possible transient. The chances of exceeding the 24-hour integrated fluence Active threshold are now low into the coming weekend, probably further suppressed for a time by any geomagnetism arising from CH50, 52 or the 26 April CME. The chances of exceedence rise into the coming week in the wake of these features, however on balance levels should remain most likely below Active, as on previous rotations, with the main uncertainty in this deriving from the possible presence of the expected weak CME.