MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-02T00:12:52
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been mainly at background levels. Solar winds are also expected to be persist at background, with only brief and slight enhancements possible from any interaction with coronal hole fast wind. These slight enhancements have the potential to bring periods of Moderate flux, perhaps approaching High (1000pfu) briefly at diurnal maximum, but otherwise background conditions are expected to persist.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by REFM, which is currently giving reasonable guidance, although values are likely to remain below model expectations.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-04-02T00:12:52 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |