MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-03T00:24:01
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is likely to continue at normal background to moderate levels, with a chance of high levels occurring during the diurnal maxima, especially later in the period following any solar wind enhancements that occur. The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level. This is supported by the Met Office REFM 3-day forecast, and the 27-day recurrence has a declining trend to below Active.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-04-03T00:24:01 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 15% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 15% | 1% |