Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-25T00:26:00

The dominance of a transient in the coming four-day forecast should render guidance from the recurrence-persistence model and REFM of limited utility. The current oscillation peaking within High flux is expected to continue at first, with an apparent drop likely on arrival of the 22 April C3 flare CME within day one (Sunday 25 April). This is expected to dent flux and fluence measurements at GOES 16 for a time, however it is thought Likely that they will recover into the new working week, with the solar wind otherwise relatively quiet under the influence of a likely minor coronal hole (CH49/+) and then an ambient slow regime.