MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-06T00:03:31
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to begin at mainly background levels through the first three days. The establishment of the high speed stream should lead to a rapidly increasing flux of electrons on day 4 (9th), perhaps reaching high levels (1e3 pfu) later.
Electron fluence is forecast to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold despite an increasing trend on day 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-06T00:03:31 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |