MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-14T00:06:46
High energy electrons (greater than 2MeV) are expected to remain below the 1000 pfu High threshold, despite an increasing trend due to the residual influence of CH58 and the CME which arrived on the 12th. The corresponding fluence levels are expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold throughout the period, but with also a rising trend likely.
The REFM model at present is showing good guidance of this increasing trend, but the the fluence remaining below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-05-14T00:06:46 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 30% | 1% |