Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-23T00:11:53

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently High and expected to remain predominantly High, although a temporary decline below the High threshold is likely during Day 3 (25th) with the arrival of the CME and the associated geomagnetic activity. The 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels through much of the period, perhaps briefly declining below the Active threshold during Day 3.

The associated 24 hour fluence is forecast to persist at Active (1e8 integrated pfu) levels through much of the period. The REFM is considered to initially to be offering reasonable guidance for the first 3 days, although the decreasing trend is likely to be too fast.