Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-19T00:28:52

The high energy electron (greater than 2MeV) flux is expected to remain at background levels at first, before becoming high at the end of day 2 (20th) or perhaps day 3 (21th) in response to the fast wind originating from CH59.

The associated 24-hour fluence will also rise accordingly, expected to reach the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold on days 3 and 4 (21th and 22nd). This is currently not supported by the latest REFM output, despite having observed high levels of electrons on the previous rotation. For that reason, the REFM is considered to provide poor guidance beyond T+24, so forecast values beyond this period should be used cautiously.