Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-27T00:00:51

he high energy electron flux is expected to persist at background levels with insufficient strength in the solar wind to re-charge the Van Allen belts at geostationary orbit. The associated fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the period. The REFM 3-day forecast is showing a low, flat trend, and considered to be offering good guidance. The 27-day recurrence also shows a low trend, as do the probabilities of the recurrence-persistence model, which combined give good confidence in the forecast.