MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-07-26T00:18:34
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to remain at background to moderate levels.
Despite solar wind speeds of around 500 km/s on the last rotation, the Van Allen belts remained surprisingly low in electron counts. The same is expected on this occasion, as suggested by both the REFM and the Recurrence-Persistence Electron forecast. However, should there be an increase, the CME expected to arrive at Earth on Day 4 (29th) will probably moderate if not prevent any sharp one.
Electron fluence values are therefore expected to remain well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. The
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-07-26T00:18:34 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |