Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-08-02T00:11:40

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is currently reaching Moderate levels (100-1000pfu) at the diurnal maxima due to the recent high speed stream from CH78 or 79. Wind speeds are largely expected to be at background levels through the next four days, although an increase to slightly elevated levels is possible on Day 2 (03 Aug). However this is unlikely to drive significant further increases in electron flux levels. As such, flux levels are expected to be on a largely steady trend during much of this period, perhaps declining later in the period.

Resultant 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore also expected to be on a steady or perhaps declining trend, and is expected to stay below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold.