MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-04T00:22:20
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain largely at normal background levels through the period, with solar wind speeds likely to be insufficient to elevate flux rate significantly higher. Any slight upward trend from the weak high speed stream from coronal hole 63 is anticipated during the UTC weekend. Electron fluence levels are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with any (small) level of uncertainty greatest on Day 3 (6th) and 4 (7th).
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-04T00:22:20 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |