MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-06-11T00:06:11
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) will remain at background to moderate levels, with no significant enhancements expected.
The corresponding electron fluence values are therefore expected to stay well below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is supported by the Met Office REFM model. The recurrence-persistence model is also showing very low probabilities of reaching Active through the forecast period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-06-11T00:06:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |