Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-05-11T00:28:49

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at mainly background or moderate levels through day 1 with no significant inputs into the radiation belts. Further background levels are likely on day 2, the increased geomagnetic activity both distorts and redistributes the electrons. A sharp rise to diurnally high levels, and then more sustained high levels are then possible on days 3 and 4, as the geomagnetic activity starts to subside. 

Electron fluence levels are forecast to be relatively stable through days 1 and 2 (11 and 12 May). A sharp increase to the Active threshold is then increasingly likely on days 3 and 4, as the electron flux is forecast to remain at mainly high levels.