Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-02-13T00:18:24

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) levels are expected to start the period at background to moderate levels under a nominal solar wind regime. Anticipated CIR effects from CH25 late day 1 (13th) or on day 2 (14th) is likely to produce electron re-distribution for a time, with counts then recovering on establishment of the high speed stream. Flux levels then likely to reach moderate to high levels on days 3 and 4 (15th & 16th).

24-hour integrated fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated fluence) values, despite a rising trend likely through days 3 and 4. REFM and 27-day recurrence data, along with the Recurrence-Persistence Electron Forecast Model confirm this, although recurrence data is considered of limited value, with the CH25 further north and likely to connect better this time around.