Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-04-13T00:15:02

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is currently at Normal Background levels, and is expected to remain at Normal Background or Moderate levels throughout the next four days, with the 24-hour integrated fluence remaining accordingly below Active.

In the longer term, the next significant enhancement is likely to be the doublet of CH45 and then 46, with the latter likely to provide the impetus to send fluence into Active territory, although this may take until later in the UTC weekend to fully manifest itself. This is beyond the range of REFM at present, which otherwise sensibly shows an unmoved low-level fluence through its whole range.