MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-27T00:20:09
The high energy flux, as observed by GOES-16 has persisted at Moderate levels for much of the last 24 hours, as the influence of coronal hole 07 recedes. Peak levels are expected to gradually decline until day 3, before a chance of further increase to High flux levels due to any enhancement from the fast wind of CH09, although this is low confidence.
The associated 24 hours fluence is anticipated to decline days 1 and 2, before rising in response to any enhancement day 3 onward. This bringing a chance of Active electron fluence by the end of the period. REFM is currently supporting fluence levels persisting below the Active threshold, in-line with the forecast.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2020-12-27T00:20:09 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |