Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-12-28T00:17:58

The high energy electron flux levels ran slightly counter to expectations in the past 24 hours in surpassing their peak value for the previous day, albeit only slightly. In terms of the forecast, this now makes exceedence of the 24-hour integrated Active threshold slightly more probable, although this relies on the influence of a non-recurrent high speed stream from CH09/-, something that may already be in course. Confidence is therefore low for the period as a whole, but levels should settle as we near midweek UTC, probably not far from those seen currently.