Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-01-19T00:13:26

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16, has persisted at background levels. A response to any coronal hole fast wind influence is anticipated through the period, enhancing flux to moderate levels, and likely reaching high at diurnal maximum. However, any solar wind enhancement is expected to be at, or below the levels observed on the previous rotation. Active fluence was not observed on that occasion, and consequently the associated 24 hour high energy electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu), with only a very slight chance of rising above. REFM guidance supports this, although fluence is expected to increase above REFM expectations.