The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) is expected to remain below High flux throughout (starting 1000 pfu). The associated 24-hour integrated fluence is therefore Expected to stay below the Active threshold throughout (1e8 integrated pfu).

This is supported by the Met Office REFM 3-day forecast and the 27-day recurrence, which both strongly indicate that the low trend will continue. This is made all the more likely by the absence on this rotation of several high-latitude precursors to CH81, i.e. the solar wind speed is expected to be lower with less impact in this four-day period compared to persistence.