Forecaster summary - Issued 2020-09-08T00:00:57

Confidence in the electron forecast is notably low at present. There is the relative sanctuary of the certainty of exceedence of Active fluence at first on day one (as observed), and the likely trend downwards of fluence with time, but the precise timing of any crossing itself is very uncertain. The recent observed trend in fluence has again been very slightly upwards - counter to expectations, but the recent resumption of a nominal solar wind regime should soon prove unsupportive of such fluence levels.  

Both REFM and the recurrence-persistence models are (sensibly) delaying the crossing downwards in reaction to recent observations, and the probabilities offered by the recurrence-persistence model tentatively adopted, with crossing probably now complete by day three (Thursday 10 September).